Friday, April 3, 2009

Trade Idea - GBP/JPY

I've been watching the Pound/Yen pair for a while now and have expected it to fall sometime soon back toward its baseline (the green line on the 4 hour chart below). This pair has been moving upward in an impressive fashion from long term lows it reached back in mid-January. The recent move up of about 1300 pips in just a few days will likely retrace (at least somewhat), and I'd like to be ready to capitalize on that when it happens.

The 1 hour chart below shows a blue entry line below where the recent move up has started to level out. Now this is the GBP/JPY and there are few currency pairs as volatile so there is no guaranty that this trade will not jump wildly around and lose a bunch of pips. So if you are at all skittish, or just don't like the risk, you might want to either sit this one out, or trade a very small amount. I intend to sell on a close below the entry line on the 1 hour chart. I'll put my stop above the recent highs (currently about 148.50 is what I'm thinking) which is a HUGE stop loss. We could be talking a 300 pip stop loss! If that does not make you at least think about passing on this one then you either have a very high risk tolerance, or you are plain nuts. Anyway, I'll take the trade on a close below the line, take the huge stop loss risk, and move to break even at +100. I'll target the green baseline, which puts potential profit in the area of 1000 pips if it just fell like a stone and did not retrace and take out a trailing stop. We'll see.


Happy Trading!