Trade Update - USD/JPY

This trade has gone well. Click here for the original trade idea. We entered the trade at the close of the 2000 EDT bar last Thursday (May 28) at 96.50. After teasing us by going back up inside the channel after opening, the pair fell steadily starting at the beginning of the Friday morning European session and has fallen pretty well since, until the end of trading on Friday the 29th and trading today. We have saved 100 pips using a trailing stop and are still in the trade. We came close to being stopped out at the close of the 1900 EDT bar today, but it has pulled back since the end of that bar. I'll keep you posted on progress.

Happy Trading!

Note- Since I posted this update, the pair has fallen 60 pips very quickly. I'm moving my stop to 30 pips above the current price, now 94.91, and will see what happens. I don't understand the big move, but don't want to lose its benefit in a wild retracement.

Trade Result - CAD/JPY -20

We kind of got whipsawed on this trade. There were two trades, as the pair moved down through support, then reversed and went up through resistance. We opened the trade short at the end of the end of the 2000 EDT bar yesterday at 86.70. the pair moved sideways for several hours then moved up and took us out at the upper resistance line at 87.10 for a loss of -40 pips. That bar closed above the blue line so I opened a long trade at 87.11 at the end of the 0145 EDT bar early this morning. Pair moved up nicely and we moved to break even fairly quickly. However, just after the start of the European session, the pair started falling and we were stopped out just before 0330 EDT with a +20 pip gain. The total for this trade was -20 pips (sigh). We'll hope for better next time.

Also, the USD/JPY is open and profitable. I'll be watching it and let you know how its going.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - CAD/JPY

I know what you are thinking. Two trades in a row with the Yen? It is true the last two trades are somewhat correlated, but not as much as you might think. Check out their charts and you'll see. Anyway, as for this trade. You can see that the pair has tested the high (blue horizontal line) several times over the last couple of days. if it breaks up can closes above that line, I'll buy. If it breaks down below the support line and heads lower, that will likely mean that the high is safe for now and we'll see some retracement from the recent run up. Either way I'm in. I'll move to break even at +30 pips. Note that this is the 15 minute chart and I'm trading on that. If it goes up, there is no telling how high it will go so I'll just ride it as long as it keeps going. If it goes down, my profit target is the green baseline. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - USD/JPY

It looks to me like the USD/JPY pair is getting ready to make a move. It will break out of the channel it is in and either run away from the 800 sma or push through it and go higher. Which one? Who knows? I'll buy on a close above the upper channel line and sell on a close below the lower line, both on the hour chart. I'll move to break even at +50 pips and we'll see where it goes from there. If it goes up, there is some resistance at the 99.50 level and I'd look at that as a profit target. If it goes lower, it could go as far as 94.00. Either way, there are a lot of pips to catch. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - AUD/USD -32

This pair started by giving us a head fake, then turning around and moving in our direction. This is actually two trades, the first a loss of -62 pips and the second a gain of +30 pips for a net of -32 pips. The first trade opened at the end of the 0700 EDT bar yesterday (May 27). I was short the pair at 0.7825. The pair reversed immediately and took us out at the stop loss at the top of the channel for a -62 pip loss. The odd thing about this reversal was that it was with mostly red (or down bars), which I find to be a bearish signal. Even after being stopped out, I thought this pair wanted to fall. We were short the pair again at the close of the 1400 EDT bar, and again (coincidentally) at 0.7825. The pair fell pretty steadily this time reaching a low of 0.7742 before reversing. We moved our stop to break even at +50 pips and I put a 10 pip trailing stop on the trade. We got stopped out just after 2015 EDT at 0.7795 for a gain on the second trade of 30 pips. Total for the trade -32 pips. While this trade did not work out like we'd hoped, the set up was sound and trades like this will win more than they lose. As one of my Alaska friends likes to say "Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you."

Happy Trading!

I'm Watching This - USD/CAD

This pair has shed better than 1300 pips in the last month. The Loonie has been a commodities currency and, traditionally, as gold, oil and natural gas go, so goes the Loonie. But this strengthening of the CAD is not called for as far as I can see in the market. Oil is way off of its highs of last year and natural gas has taken a huge beating in the market. Gold is up, but not overly high. I think this pair is ripe for a correction, perhaps a 1,000 pip correction and I'm going to be watching it.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - AUD/USD

Greetings All! I was in New Orleans for the last week or so and did not have the opportunity to do much trading. But I'm back now and in the saddle again.

I'm looking at the AUD/USD pair which has been trading in a channel for the last several bars. I will take the usual channel trade with this pair, buying or selling the pair upon a close above or below the channel lines on the hour bar. I'll move to break even at +50 pips and put a trailing stop on. If it breaks lower, it could go to the 800 sma (at the bottom of the chart). If it breaks higher it could go to the next resistance level on the daily chart at about 0.8500. Either way, we'll be ready.

Happy Trading!

Trade Updates - USD/CAD and EUR/CHF

I'm going to be out of town and out of touch for a week or so and won't be posting. Apologies to those regular readers who have come to count on the trade ideas. I will be back in the saddle starting Sunday or Monday the 24th and/or 25th of May.

As for the two trades which opened on Friday. Both stopped out for me at break even and I will report more on those when I return. Sorry for the short notice, but it could not be helped.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - AUD/USD +80

This trade did well. Not as well as we might have hoped, but well enough (for the original trade idea, click here). The trade picked up an additional 20 pips since the updated this morning. The total was +80 pips. We'll be watching this pair to see if it falls below the blue line, and if it does we might take it again. For now though, I'll take my 80 pips and smile.

Happy Trading!

ps. The USD/CAD trade is open now. It is not looking great, but I'm still hopeful. Time will tell.

Trade Idea - USD/CAD

The Dollar/Loonie has moved up off of its lows over the last few days and pierced some significant resistance (green line on chart to the right) in the last day or so. The pair seems to be catching its breath a bit and preparing for another move. Which way? I don't know and don't care. We'll buy on a close above either the upper or lower channel band. I'm going to move to break even at +30. Also, watch out for a head fake (see January 13 post for more information on that), these narrow bands can do that. It is almost like they have to squat to launch themselves sometimes. I'll keep you posted on progress.

Happy Trading!

Trade Update - AUD/USD

For the original trade idea, click here. This trade opened yesterday at the close of the 0800 EDT bar. I opened a position at 0.7602. The pair fell pretty quickly after breaking the support line, and we moved to break even just after 1300 EDT. I put a 20 pip trailing stop on the trade and it has since saved about 60 pips (the trade is up +117 at this writing). It is moving toward a longer term support line and if it closes below, I will add another position. I'll use the same stop for convenience. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - EUR/CHF

The chart to the right shows the recent activity (or lack thereof) of the EUR/CHF in 15 minute bars. I believe we can all agree, this is a channel. Now, this pair is not the most volatile of the pairs we regularly look at, but this channel is too long to ignore. I'll trade this on a close above or below the channel lines on the 15 minute chart. I'll move to break even at +30 pips and put a 10 pip trailing stop on the trade at that point. If we are lucky, a channel this long will yield a significant move. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - AUD/USD

This pair looks like it is setting up for a possible break of the most recent resistance line (red line on the chart to the right). If it closes below that line on the hour chart, it is a sell for me. I'll move to break even at +50 pips and consider adding to the position if it gets down around the blue resistance line before stopping us out. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - USD/CHF +0

This trade broke out like we expected, but then did nothing. It opened at the end of the 2000 EDT 15 minute bar yesterday and fell quickly to the break even point (+30 pips). It then rose quickly and took us out at break even about 2115 EDT yesterday. Not much to talk about. This pair may be setting up another channel and I'll be watching it. Hope you scored some pips.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - USD/CHF

As you can tell from the chart to the right, this pair has been consolidating in a fairly narrow channel since last Friday. We can expect it to break out at some point and when it does we'll be ready. We'll vary the usual trading strategy for a break out trade. I'll enter on a break out on the 15 minute chart this time and move to break even at +30 pips. If it goes north, it could reach the 800 sma, if it falls I'll target the lows at around 1.0850. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - EUR/GBP +60

For the original trade idea, click here. This trade opened when the 0800 hour bar closed above the upper channel line on Friday, May 8. I was a bit late getting in so I opened my position a little higher than I would have liked at 0.8945. The pair moved to break even at +30 pips just after midnight on Sunday night (actually, early Monday morning) and I put a 10 pip trailing stop on the trade. I was stopped out after a big run up about 1125 EDT Monday at 0.9005 for a +60 pip gain (its actually better than that as these are "super pips" worth about 1.3 times the value of normal pips!). Its a nice win. As you can see from the chart, the pair has since fallen back inside the channel so we did about as good as we could do on this breakout.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - GBP/JPY +34

For the original trade idea, click here. This trade opened for me at the end of the 15 minute bar at 0415 EDT yesterday when it broke the upper support line and closed at 148.70. It moved down nicely and closed below the second support line at 0530 EDT at 147.73. At that point I was in for a 2/3 position. At about that time as well, the first position was +100 pips so I moved that position to break even and used that stop as my stop for the second position. I put a 20 pip trailing stop on the positions at that time. The trade stopped out at 147.70 after a nice run down and a subsequent retracement. The total for the trade was (1/3 x 100 pips) + (1/3 x 3 pips) = 34 pips total for the trade. Some of you may have done better, depending on how you took your positions and what stops you used, but I am counting 34 pips on our total. I'll take that.

Happy Trading!

Trade Updates - GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP

Both of these trades are currently open and have moved to break even (for the GBP/JPY trade idea, click here. For the EUR/GBP trade idea, click here). The Euro/Pound trade has saved 30 pips so far using a 10 pip trailing stop. The Pound/Yen trade has not saved any pips yet, but I am hopeful. It has broken both support lines and, if it continues down, could make it to the 800 sma. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - EUR/GBP

The Euro/Pound pair has been trading in a tight range since the recent run up. I'm prepared to buy on a close of the hour bar above the upper channel line and sell on a close of the hour bar below the lower channel line. This is a typical "Channel Trade" of the type we have done dozens of times before. I'll move to break even at +30 pips (because it is the EUR/GBP and volatility is low with this pair). The initial stop will be the other side of the channel from where we enter. I'll keep you posted as things develop.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - GBP/JPY

The Pound/Yen pair has been trending up for quite awhile now. I would like to be ready for a correction when it comes. We all know how volatile and fickle this pair can be, so I'm going to structure this trade a bit differently than usual. Below is the 15 minute chart of this pair which shows two entry lines. My plan is to sell a 1/3 size lot upon the break of the first support line.

Below is an hour chart of the pair showing the second entry line (red) and the base line (the green one, which is our target). When we have entered a 1/3 size lot on the 15 minute chart, I am going to enter another 1/3 size trade if the pair closes below the entry line on the hour chart. When, if ever will I enter the last 1/3 of the trade, you ask? If the pair closes below the 800 sma, I will enter the last 1/3 of the trade and hopefully ride it down to the base line.

The reason I am structuring this trade this way is that the initial stop is going to be at 151.00 and that is a huge stop loss. If we get in on the first 1/3 of the trade and then it goes back up and stops us out (like the AUD/USD just did), we will be out less than 100 pips (at least where things are now). If we get to open the second trade, the stop will move to the original entry price, so we again will have limited risk. I will move the stop for both trade to the second entry line if the trade gets +50 pips. If we get to the 800 sma, I'll post ideas about where the stop should do. For now, we wait.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - AUD/USD -63

For the original trade idea, click here. This trade opened just like we expected it would. But that is the only thing it did like we expected it would. After closing below the blue entry line at the end of the 2100 EDT bar on Tuesday, May 5, it immediately turned around and headed back up. We entered at 0.7355 and were stopped out yesterday just before noon EDT at 0.7480. As we traded a half sized lot because of the large stop size, I'm counting half the pips lost in the total. Total loss for the trade was 125/2 or -63. I still think this pair will fall. I will keep my eye on it. Until then, we'll look for other opportunities.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - USD/JPY +58

This trade worked out like I'd planned, just not as soon as I'd planned. Still, I'll take 58 pips any day of the week. This trade opened at the end of the 1200 EDT hour bar on May 4 (yesterday), at 99.00. The trade went down for a bit and looked like it was going to do quite well, then retraced and actually went back up inside the channel for a few hours early this morning. It started moving sideways, up a few pips and then down a few pips until about 3 hours ago. The pair started falling during the 1900 EDT bar and kept on going until it touched the base line, and hitting my limit order. This trade didn't make as much as I'd hoped due to the steepness of the base line, but hey, there are some things we cannot control. Our job is to react to the price and follow where it takes us, not to try to make it do our bidding. So we took 58 pips instead of 88. Its still a win!

Happy Trading!

UPDATE- If you are still in this trade, the pair has fallen through support and has moved down an additional 40 pips. I might put a trailing stop of maybe 20 pips and see where it goes (were I still in the trade, that is).

Trade Idea - AUD/USD

I've been watching this pair for a while now. I think it is getting ready to fall and if it does, it could go 200-300 pips. I will sell the pair if it closes below the blue entry line on the hour chart. I'll move to break even at +50 pips of profit and probably put a trailing stop on the trade. If it gains momentum, it could fall to the 800 sma and, if it goes on, to the green base line. The green line is a continuation of the previous up trend. The stop on this trade will go above 0.7480 (about 100 pips at the current price). If that is too rich for you, trade a smaller lot size.

Happy Trading!

PS. The USD/JPY trade is now open and has been bouncing between the entry at about 99.00 and +20 pip mark. I'll move this trade to break even if it gets to +30 (which is a change from the original trade idea so note it if you are following this trade.)

Trade Idea - USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen pair has been trading in a channel for the last 30 bars or so (on the hour chart). You can see on the chart to the right that it is consolidating from a fairly good run up. The pair has gained about 400 pips from its most recent lows last Monday. It could be catching its breath for a new run up (weakening the Yen further) or it could fall back and give up some of its recent gains (weakening the Dollar). It really does not matter to us, does it? We'll buy on the close of an hour bar above the upper channel line and we'll sell on the close of the hour bar below the lower channel line. Either way suits us just fine. The stop will be on the other side of the channel and we'll look to move to break even after +50 pips. If it breaks up it could go until it hits resistance at about the 100.75 mark (green target line). If it breaks down it could go to the green trend line or stop and turn back at the 800 sma. If it breaks lower, I'll probably get out at the 800 and be happy with my 50-60 pips. We'll see what happens. I'll update you when there is news on this trade.

Happy Trading!