Monday, May 4, 2009

Trade Idea - USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen pair has been trading in a channel for the last 30 bars or so (on the hour chart). You can see on the chart to the right that it is consolidating from a fairly good run up. The pair has gained about 400 pips from its most recent lows last Monday. It could be catching its breath for a new run up (weakening the Yen further) or it could fall back and give up some of its recent gains (weakening the Dollar). It really does not matter to us, does it? We'll buy on the close of an hour bar above the upper channel line and we'll sell on the close of the hour bar below the lower channel line. Either way suits us just fine. The stop will be on the other side of the channel and we'll look to move to break even after +50 pips. If it breaks up it could go until it hits resistance at about the 100.75 mark (green target line). If it breaks down it could go to the green trend line or stop and turn back at the 800 sma. If it breaks lower, I'll probably get out at the 800 and be happy with my 50-60 pips. We'll see what happens. I'll update you when there is news on this trade.

Happy Trading!