Thursday, January 1, 2009

Trade Result EUR/GBP

On the 19th of December I suggested a EUR/GBP long trade to take advantage of a deviation from the trend. I thought it might move back up and recapture some of what it had given back in profit taking from its big run up. I went long at 0.9305. I set the trade up to take profit on half my position at 0.9425 and the other half at 0.9600. The first half hit my profit target on Monday morning and the second target almost a week later. Total profit for the trade was +208 (I traded one half my normal position size on each leg so I added the two profits and divided by two). The pair continued to move up past my target and hit a high of 0.9805 (another 200 pips!). Perhaps I should have just moved my stop loss up and let it run. But, as one of my favorite traders, Rob Booker, often says, you should never feel bad about taking a profit.

On the USD/JPY idea I wrote about the other day, the pair is trading in a 100 pip range and I'll buy on the breakout either way. But I think it will fall (I've been wrong many times forecasting where prices will go, which is why I'm ready to jump either way). I've set my trade up to sell if the price closes below 0.8998 or buy if it closes above 0.9104 (both on the hour charts). In the last run up and retracement, the price has been respecting the .236 fib retracement level (at least 4 times). If it closes on the hour bar below that level (which is my entry point) I look for it to fall to the .382 and maybe the .500. I'll move my stop to breakeven or better if it hits the .382 and look for it to go to the .500. I'll keep you posted.

Happy New Year and Happy Trading!