Thursday, March 26, 2009

Trade Idea - EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is consolidating in a less than 100 pip wide channel (perhaps waiting for the 0830 EDT GDP report). I like this pair today and think it will likely break out of the channel fairly soon. I'll buy on a break out on the 15 minute chart above 1.3618 and sell on a close below 1.3537. Note that this is the 15 minute chart, not the 1 hour chart. I'm doing this in an attempt to capitalize on a quick move up or down. The one thing that could keep me out of this trade is if we see a huge bar on the news (or for any other reason) that jumps up 50 or 60 pips. This is what the trade looks like:

You might even consider getting in a bit early. Note the narrower channel inside the wider channel. The danger here is that the pair could bounce off of the resistance of the larger channel. It might be worth a try though. I will probably put on a small position if this happens.

The green lines are the profit targets, set at logical support/resistance lines marked by previous, recent highs and lows. The rules that apply to this trade are: Move to break even at +30 pips, initial stop loss at other side of the channel, 10 pip trailing stop after break even. Let's see where it goes!

BTW, the EUR/CHF is open and looks to be close enough to the break even line that I'm going to move it there now. I'm off to work in a bit and don't want to miss that time (just in case it falls quickly). I'll keep you posted on this one.

Happy Trading!