Friday, December 5, 2008

NFP Day

Today is Non-Farm Payroll day. That means that the U.S. Government will release information telling us whether, and how many, jobs were lost or created in November, 2008. Traditionally, this means a pretty big move in the Forex around the time of the announcement (8:30 EST, 13:30 GMT). I've tried all sorts of ideas on how to trade "news" like the NFP, but the bottom line has been that, as a retail Forex trader, I just don't have the access to get into a trade fast enough to beat the big spreads or get fills good enough to really make any money trading news. So, for the most part, I sit it out. I'll see what the market does then look for trades after 9 am or so. It is much safer.

One of the trade set-ups I see developing is a converging triangle formation on the EUR/USD. It is very clear on the weekly chart and pretty clear on the daily. The triangle looks to converge around January 8, 2009, so a trade is likely to take place before that. I will buy or sell depending on whether the pair breaks up or down. My guess is that it will break down and I will look for support at about the 1.1650 level.

Good Trading!