Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Forex Thoughts

This is likely to be a volatile week in the currency markets as a basket full of reports which tend to move the market are coming out, not the least of which is the FOMC's Tuesday/Wednesday meeting. The smart money is on a Fed Rate cut of 25 basis points (but such a cut is by no means a certainty). I've been watching three currency pairs for the last several days and it seems like there is a good bit of waiting going on in the market. The USD/CAD pair has been trading in a 2 cent range for the better part of a month now and will eventually break out. Which way? I've got no idea, but a buy order at the top of the range and a sell order at the bottom seems like it might be a good idea. Markets move and it would be unusual for this market to stay range bound for too much longer.

The other break out play is the USD/CHF. Since its run up on the 23rd, its been trading in a tight range. The same type of buy at the high end and sell at the low end might be appropriate.

My third thought is on the EUR/USD. The Euro has been doing very well against the dollar for the last, well long time. It has fallen off just a bit in the last week as it bounced off of the resistance at 1.60. If the Fed lowers interest rates again, it could push this pair back toward its resistance level. Might be an opportunity to make a few pips if the Fed does lower rates.

Just my few scattered musings on the Forex market. Let us see how it plays out.

Good Trading!