Trade Idea - USD/JPY

On the chart to the right (which, you'll note is a 15 minute chart), you'll see that the USD/JPY pair is coming to a nice point in an obvious converging triangle. I would like to buy on a close above the top side of the triangle, or sell on a close below the bottom side of the triangle.

Because of the shorter time frame, I'm going to move to break even at +30 pips. I may wait to put a trailer on it to see what it is doing, but I will certainly put one on if the pair continues to move in the right direction. The stop will go no fewer than 10 pips outside the other side of the triangle. I'll keep you posted as things develop.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - USD/CHF +200

Wow. A good start to the second quarter. As you will know from the previous post, this traded opened when the 1400 EDT hour bar on Wednesday closed below the support line. I was short this pair at 1.2595 (actually, 1.25953 - my broker offers 1/10 pips). After a little fake move back up to, what was now, the resistance line, the pair fell pretty well. We came very close to getting stopped out on the 0500 EDT bar (within .3 pips) but dodged that bullet and stayed in the trade. Things fell pretty well, finally stopping out at 1.2395 for a +200 pip gain. The chart looked like this:

The pair could still go down to the profit target line, so if you are still in the trade, you might want to hold it for a bit longer. I'm going to look for the next set up and be very happy with this trade.

Happy Trading!

Trade Updated - USD/CAD Still Open

This trade opened at the close of the 1400 EDT hour bar yesterday. I was in at 1.2595 with my stop set at 1.2725. The pair dithered a bit, going back up to our signal line before slowly falling until we hit our break even of 1.2550 at just about 2200 EDT. I put a 20 pip trailing stop on the trade and so far we have saved 40 pips and our stop loss is currently at 1.2555. I'll keep you posted on trade progress.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - USD/CAD

This one is a little different than the channel breakouts I usually trade. The USD/CAD has been trending up (weakening) for the last few weeks since the big mid-March drop. You can see the baseline (green line) up trend and the steep line (blue line) up trend taking off away from it. You can also see the 800 sma (purple line) tracking the current prices. Now, no one knows with certainty what any currency pair will do (or any traded equity, commodity or contract), but we can make generalities. If this pair falls down and closes through its 800 sma and the blue steep trend line it is a sell trade for me and I'd look for the pair to fall all the way to the green base line. There is no buy side here, only a sell side. I'd place the stop at 1.2725 or so and move to break even if the pair closes below 1.2550. I'll probably put a trailing stop on it after that (it's just my way), but I'll try to give it enough room to make it down to the 1.2300 level or so. Below is a chart showing the set up.

Happy Trading!

A Good First Quarter +2,690 Pips

For those paying attention, the first quarter of this year yielded +2,690 pips based on the Trade Ideas posted on this blog. It seems that this has become more of a way to document my trades (always a good idea) than an outlet to discuss the issues I face while trading and holding down a full time job. I guess that I've been trading and working long enough that it has become second nature to do both and I just don't think about it any longer. It has been good to get my trading ideas out there and it has helped me focus my trading. It has also made me answerable to someone (you who read this blog) for my trades. This type of accountability is vital to a successful trading plan. What's a trading plan, you ask? Why, it is the subject of a future post. So keep an eye out.

As for the pips we've gained in the first quarter of the year, if you trade 1 standard lot, you've made $26,900 if you've taken every trade on this blog. If you trade 1 mini lot, you've made $2,690 (roughly). Not bad. Let's see if we can keep moving in this direction. Thanks to all of you who send me your comments and questions. I'll see if we can have as good a second quarter as we did the first.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - EUR/CHF +0

This trade did nothing after my last post. To recap, the trade opened short when the pair closed below the lower channel line at the end of the 1000 EDT hour bar. I was in at 1.5101. It moved back up into the channel, then fell to our +30 break even point about 1800 EDT. The pair quickly reversed and took us out at break even just after 1930 EDT. Net of +0 for the trade. I'll be back later with the next trade idea.

Happy Trading!

Trade Update - EUR/CHF

This trade opened at the end of the 1000 EDT hour bar. I was in short at 1.5101. The pair went back up into the channel, then, starting with the 1500 EDT bar, started to fall. I moved to break even at +30 pips a bit after 1800 EDT. Not much to report since then. The trade is still open. I'll update as it progresses (or closes).

Happy Trading!