Trade Update - USD/JPY

This trade has gone well. Click here for the original trade idea. We entered the trade at the close of the 2000 EDT bar last Thursday (May 28) at 96.50. After teasing us by going back up inside the channel after opening, the pair fell steadily starting at the beginning of the Friday morning European session and has fallen pretty well since, until the end of trading on Friday the 29th and trading today. We have saved 100 pips using a trailing stop and are still in the trade. We came close to being stopped out at the close of the 1900 EDT bar today, but it has pulled back since the end of that bar. I'll keep you posted on progress.

Happy Trading!

Note- Since I posted this update, the pair has fallen 60 pips very quickly. I'm moving my stop to 30 pips above the current price, now 94.91, and will see what happens. I don't understand the big move, but don't want to lose its benefit in a wild retracement.

Trade Result - CAD/JPY -20

We kind of got whipsawed on this trade. There were two trades, as the pair moved down through support, then reversed and went up through resistance. We opened the trade short at the end of the end of the 2000 EDT bar yesterday at 86.70. the pair moved sideways for several hours then moved up and took us out at the upper resistance line at 87.10 for a loss of -40 pips. That bar closed above the blue line so I opened a long trade at 87.11 at the end of the 0145 EDT bar early this morning. Pair moved up nicely and we moved to break even fairly quickly. However, just after the start of the European session, the pair started falling and we were stopped out just before 0330 EDT with a +20 pip gain. The total for this trade was -20 pips (sigh). We'll hope for better next time.

Also, the USD/JPY is open and profitable. I'll be watching it and let you know how its going.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - CAD/JPY

I know what you are thinking. Two trades in a row with the Yen? It is true the last two trades are somewhat correlated, but not as much as you might think. Check out their charts and you'll see. Anyway, as for this trade. You can see that the pair has tested the high (blue horizontal line) several times over the last couple of days. if it breaks up can closes above that line, I'll buy. If it breaks down below the support line and heads lower, that will likely mean that the high is safe for now and we'll see some retracement from the recent run up. Either way I'm in. I'll move to break even at +30 pips. Note that this is the 15 minute chart and I'm trading on that. If it goes up, there is no telling how high it will go so I'll just ride it as long as it keeps going. If it goes down, my profit target is the green baseline. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - USD/JPY

It looks to me like the USD/JPY pair is getting ready to make a move. It will break out of the channel it is in and either run away from the 800 sma or push through it and go higher. Which one? Who knows? I'll buy on a close above the upper channel line and sell on a close below the lower line, both on the hour chart. I'll move to break even at +50 pips and we'll see where it goes from there. If it goes up, there is some resistance at the 99.50 level and I'd look at that as a profit target. If it goes lower, it could go as far as 94.00. Either way, there are a lot of pips to catch. I'll keep you posted.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - AUD/USD -32

This pair started by giving us a head fake, then turning around and moving in our direction. This is actually two trades, the first a loss of -62 pips and the second a gain of +30 pips for a net of -32 pips. The first trade opened at the end of the 0700 EDT bar yesterday (May 27). I was short the pair at 0.7825. The pair reversed immediately and took us out at the stop loss at the top of the channel for a -62 pip loss. The odd thing about this reversal was that it was with mostly red (or down bars), which I find to be a bearish signal. Even after being stopped out, I thought this pair wanted to fall. We were short the pair again at the close of the 1400 EDT bar, and again (coincidentally) at 0.7825. The pair fell pretty steadily this time reaching a low of 0.7742 before reversing. We moved our stop to break even at +50 pips and I put a 10 pip trailing stop on the trade. We got stopped out just after 2015 EDT at 0.7795 for a gain on the second trade of 30 pips. Total for the trade -32 pips. While this trade did not work out like we'd hoped, the set up was sound and trades like this will win more than they lose. As one of my Alaska friends likes to say "Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you."

Happy Trading!

I'm Watching This - USD/CAD

This pair has shed better than 1300 pips in the last month. The Loonie has been a commodities currency and, traditionally, as gold, oil and natural gas go, so goes the Loonie. But this strengthening of the CAD is not called for as far as I can see in the market. Oil is way off of its highs of last year and natural gas has taken a huge beating in the market. Gold is up, but not overly high. I think this pair is ripe for a correction, perhaps a 1,000 pip correction and I'm going to be watching it.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - AUD/USD

Greetings All! I was in New Orleans for the last week or so and did not have the opportunity to do much trading. But I'm back now and in the saddle again.

I'm looking at the AUD/USD pair which has been trading in a channel for the last several bars. I will take the usual channel trade with this pair, buying or selling the pair upon a close above or below the channel lines on the hour bar. I'll move to break even at +50 pips and put a trailing stop on. If it breaks lower, it could go to the 800 sma (at the bottom of the chart). If it breaks higher it could go to the next resistance level on the daily chart at about 0.8500. Either way, we'll be ready.

Happy Trading!