One-Third of the Year Behind Us

There really isn't anything going on in the market that I'm in love with so I've got no trades planned at the moment. It seemed like the perfect time to stop and reflect on what has been a great 4 months for our trading accounts (presuming you've been following the trades suggested here). Through April, we are up 4,334 pips. That is better than I would have thought we'd do if you'd have asked me on January 1. But it highlights an issue I think we should discuss. Namely, the issue of losses. The run up in the first four months of the year has been wonderful, but it is unreasonable to expect that it will continue unabated. I do not have a crystal ball which tells me only which trades will win. If we continue to trade together through the year, it is inevitable that we will have a few big losers. That is just part of trading and something that every profitable trader must learn to deal with. I suggest preparing for it by reading Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. It is an easy read an will help you prepare for what is inevitable if you trade enough. We will be profitable at the end of the year, and I believe, based on my experience trading the methods we trade here, that our profit curve will not decrease significantly, but there will be losing trades. Best we prepare before hand.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - EUR/USD +198

For the original trade idea, click here. This trade went pretty much as planned (for which we are grateful). I gave the particulars of the trade in my update last night so I won't go into that again. I will say that the importance of waiting for the close of a bar before entering a trade was reinforced on this trade. You'll note that two bars prior to our entry bar the pair looked like it was going to break downward (the 0700 EDT bar on Tuesday). I was watching this bar develop and almost jumped the gun and took the trade early (proving that I am capable of breaking my own rules - naughty me). I'm glad I didn't, and the trade worked out very well. The particulars for this trade were as follows:

Enter Long at 1.3050
Exit Position at 1.3248
Profit = +198 pips

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - USD/CHF +301

For original trade idea, click here. If you read my update of last night you know how the trade developed so I won't go into that again. Last night, after some hesitation the pair fell down to our profit target (the green base line) and we took our profits. The totals for the two positions were:

Position 1: Enter short at 1.1549
Exit at 1.1380
Profit = +169 pips

Position 2: Enter short at 1.1512
Exit at 1.1380
Profit = +132 pips

Total Profit on Trade = +301 pips. I'll take that pretty much any time the market gives it.

Happy Trading!

Trade Updates - USD/CHF and EUR/USD - Both are Open

There is a problem with uploading graphics to blogger, so I won't be able to post a chart with this update. We'll hope it resolves soon and I'll let you see how the trades are doing.

USD/CHF - For the original trade idea, click here. I currently have two positions open on this trade. The first I entered when the pair closed below the first blue entry line on the 15 minute chart at the end of the 0845 EDT bar. I was short the pair at 1.1549. The second position I opened when the pair closed below the second entry line at the close of the 1045 EDT bar. I was short on the second trade at 1.1512. At the moment the stop for both pairs is 1.1449 and we are close to being stopped out (but there is always hope!). Total profit for both positions if closed out at the current stop is +163 pips. I'll update when there is more news.

EUR/USD - For the original trade idea, click here. I entered this trade long at 1.3050 when the hour bar closed above the upper channel line at the end of the 0900 EDT bar. We are currently +60 if we are stopped out at the current stop loss. I'll update when there is more news.

Total for both trades if they are both stopped out is +223 pips. Not bad for a day's work!

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has been trading in about a 60 pip channel since yesterday mid-day EDT. This type of tight range is usually an indication of an imminent break out. I'll buy on a close above or below the defining channel lines as indicated on the chart to the right. I'll move to break even if the pair gets to +50 pips and then likely put a trailing stop on (I favor a 20 pip stop in this type of trade. Initial stop will be the other side of the channel. If the pair breaks up, the profit target will be the 800 sma. If it breaks lower, the pair will probably run into support at about the 1.2900 level, but could break through and if it does might fall as low as 1.2400 before finding any substantive support. I'll keep you posted as things develop.

Happy Trading!

Trade Idea - USD/CHF

The US Dollar/Swiss is moving up and has a couple of nice moves up over its long term trend line (the green base line). It may try to move down to the long term trend line. If it breaks through and closes below the first blue entry line on the 15 minute chat that is a sell trade for me. I'll put my stop just above the recent high (currently at about 1.1600. I may add a second position if the pair moves below the second blue entry line. This is a shorter term trade so I'll move to break even earlier, at about 30 pips of profit.

Below is a 4 hour chart showing the overall trend. The three large moves up from the base line give us an idea that the pair may move down toward it again.

Happy Trading!

Trade Result - USD/CAD +160

I'm on the road today and tomorrow so just a brief post on this tonight. Since the last post updating this trade, this trade has risen and closed us out with a 160 pip gain.

I'll take those kind of pips any time. It made for a nice week. Hope you all got in on it.

Happy Trading!